Watch the downside 1.0 Archives - The Loadstar

Freaking cool CH Robinson – it’s the operating model, stupid!

Alessandro Pasetti — Thu, 31 Oct 2024 12:19:11 +0000

… and very wrong here.
Yours truly.
Oh, in fact
Even at a glance, CH Robinson’s Q3 24 (CHRW) update out yesterday (30 October) after the US stock market closed, was nothing short of sensational. Too good to be true, however?
There are lots of adjustments in its figures and non-GAAP metrics kicking around. Nonetheless, in a soft market, adjusted earnings per share came in about 11% higher than expected, hitting $1.28 for the ...

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Analysis: Mainfreight on the grill

Alessandro Pasetti — Wed, 09 Oct 2024 11:38:33 +0000

‘All’s well that ends where it all started‘ I argued in my 26 July coverage of Mainfreight (MFT), New Zealand’s bijou crown jewel in transport and logistics.
And since then, the stock has added… NZ$1 (US$0.62) to its NZ$72 level (US$43.8) in just over two months.
From a value perspective, suggesting that MFT is dead wood isn’t far-fetched. Even more so, in fact, after running my DCF calculator at the end of ...

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Kuehne + Nagel – when dirt cheap isn’t cheap enough

Alessandro Pasetti — Mon, 23 Sep 2024 11:44:05 +0000

With all the noise surrounding DSV and its massive €14.9bn takeover of Schenker, we have almost forgotten rival Kuehne + Nagel, the forwarder that will lose its crown as the world’s largest player by volume in air and ocean freight if the Danish-German tie-up, as planned, goes through in the second quarter of 2025.
The value of DSV boosted on the market – not as much as most earnings-accretion scenarios would ...

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‘Worn out’ by gloomy FedEx

Alessandro Pasetti — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 11:47:56 +0000

It’s hard not be quite bearish on FedEx (FDX) – and, for that matter, transport and logistics for calendar Q3 24 ending in 10 days’ time – following the conference call with analysts that followed the Memphis integrator’s release of gloomy fiscal Q1 25 numbers for the three months to the end of August.
To get a sense of how bad it was – as management was fairly grilled by analysts ...

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Analysis: CH Robinson – from worst to best…or beast?

Alessandro Pasetti — Fri, 02 Aug 2024 11:16:10 +0000

There is no other way to gauge the CH Robinson (CHRW) corporate story, I think: rewind to exactly a year ago, 2 August 2023.
New boss Dave Bozeman (pictured below) had recently taken over as group CEO, effective 26 June, leading $94-a-share CHRW into Q2 23 numbers – the dark* post-Covid, post-Bob Biesterfeld days.
(*So much so that the run to mid-April this year ended with a multi-year nadir of $65, in ...

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Mainfreight – all’s well that ends where it all started

Alessandro Pasetti — Fri, 26 Jul 2024 11:47:28 +0000

New Zealand’s Mainfreight (MFT) has topped our DeskOne terminal coverage for a couple of weeks now, its stock rally up to the annual general meeting (AGM) held yesterday, 25 July, ending in tears.
As we highlighted, the latest update from management was hard to digest for investors following previous financial disclosure at the end of May where it was apparent that several operating bits weren’t firing on all cylinders.
In other words, ...

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‘The Great Transport Value Play’

Alessandro Pasetti — Fri, 26 Jul 2024 10:39:11 +0000

There’s lot of transport – rather than pure logistics – appeal flowing from stock market events that unfolded in the past 24 hours.
As you may recall a couple of weeks ago, with portfolio rotation (out of tech) to safer places very much in vogue, Seeking Alpha was one of those riding the Great Shift wave in the US market:
“The Russell 2000 index (RTY) of small-cap stocks climbed more than 3% ...

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UPS drama – a Premium back and forth on key bits and pieces

Alessandro Pasetti — Wed, 24 Jul 2024 11:55:50 +0000

You probably know all you need to now by now about UPS if you have followed our DeskOne coverage in the past 24 hours.
(Please click to expand the table below.)
Today, however, in a rather different Premium fashion, far from the usual, I share a live conversation with a senior US-based buy-side analyst who, unprompted, was keen to chat with me just as the UPS call was (boringly) on, with few ...

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Analysis: Kuehne + Nagel slides – shades of ‘dull’ or just plain ‘awful’?

Alessandro Pasetti — Tue, 23 Jul 2024 11:19:25 +0000

The Q2 24 numbers released today by Kuehne + Nagel (K+N), broadly in line with expectations – as I earlier pointed out here – were uninspiring at best.
(Delusional at worst.)
Indeed, there remains plenty of evidence to suggest…
… this was a rather dull mid-summer update.
And that’s base case in our Premium circles, with those in the bear camp going for “very dull” or saying the Q2 update was “awful” (given the ...

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CH Robinson – momentum, folks?

Alessandro Pasetti — Wed, 19 Jun 2024 11:58:28 +0000

We all know that a single man seldom makes the difference at corporate level – bar Elon Musk perhaps – but we are also all aware of how the right appointment can make a splash with investors.
Case in point: I am sure you recall The Rocket Dave Bates joining XPO as COO from listed US LTL gem Old Dominion last year, and the related surge in XPO’s stock price – ...

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