private equity Archives - The Loadstar

Forward Air – unfixable?

Alessandro Pasetti — Tue, 05 Nov 2024 13:17:27 +0000

The last time I looked at the Forward Air (FWRD) story in mid-October, waiting for Q3 24 numbers to be released, I was so focused on possible divestments – as previously promised* – by year-end, that I wrongly stated the company wasn’t guiding the market for Ebitda this year.
(*Conf call in May – when the new CEO had just started – then-FWRD CFO Rebecca Garbrick said – emphasis in bold ...

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Timeline essential: Lethargic Kuehne + Nagel? ‘Just take it private’

Alessandro Pasetti — Mon, 14 Oct 2024 11:36:45 +0000

With rival DSV clinching its transformational Schenker deal, its stock rallying to new highs, lonely Kuehne + Nagel (K+N) is preparing for a “new supply chain reality“, ShippingWatch duly reported last week.
Board member and head of Sea Logistics Michael Aldwell, a disciple of K+N legend Otto Schacht, told the Danish press that the Swiss forwarder will do what needs to be done to keep its leadership at the top of ...

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Timeline essential: DSV + Schenker – final deadline approaches

Alessandro Pasetti — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 11:11:28 +0000

DSV CEO Jens Lund (pictured below) was in the news last week bravely reassuring all of us deal-junkies that, after the integration of DB Schenker is done and dusted*, the Danish freight forwarder will entertain more acquisitions.
(*By way of background: Assuming closing, as stated, in Q2 25, that suggests a post-Schenker M&A timeline of whatever scale from 2027/28 onwards.)
That’s quite forward-looking, but let’s stick to the very short term here ...

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Germany AG in disarray – ‘DSV vs CVC’ not over yet

Alessandro Pasetti — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 11:29:18 +0000

To suggest that Danish forwarder DSV, with its very strong track record in M&A, would sign a €14.3bn transformational deal to acquire Schenker and arrange a call with analysts to introduce the world’s largest forwarder without having covered all the bases, makes you doubt your own mental health.
‘Give CVC eternal rest, O Lord’
That was consensus in our marketplace earlier this week when Bloomberg and Reuters – both news agencies head and ...

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Guilty! Germany AG sells Schenker short – a steal at €14.3bn

Alessandro Pasetti — Fri, 13 Sep 2024 09:38:20 +0000

Let’s get frustration out of the way immediately: if nothing else changes, DSV will take over DB Schenker (DBS) within nine months. Me?
Dead wrong on the outcome, our base case always hinging on a sale to private equity followed by IPO exit within five years.
We still get wind of CVC Capital Partners doing all it can to get back in the race, but chances it could scupper the €14.3bn enterprise-value ...

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‘DSV + Schenker’ – shock, celebration and…risk

Alessandro Pasetti — Thu, 12 Sep 2024 10:50:27 +0000

Now it’s a waiting game for M&A aficionados after Reuters kept most of us up all night, trying to decide what to make of its breaking story headed: “Denmark’s DSV wins 14 billion-euro race for Deutsche Bahn’s Schenker, sources say“.
Here it comes
The exclusive followed earlier Bloomberg coverage – read: “DSV said [to be] in advanced talks to buy €14 billion Deutsche Bahn arm” – also according to which, the Danish ...

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‘Forwarders hope DSV will win DB Schenker’

Alessandro Pasetti — Tue, 27 Aug 2024 11:10:50 +0000

“For one thing, our senior sources have often suggested that Berlin would be perfectly happy to embrace private equity (PE) ownership. That, in their view, is plan A.” – Loadstar Premium, ‘Sale, float, nothing‘, 23 May… 2023.

With headline risk back in vogue for Denmark’s DSV as far as its €14bn DB Schenker (DBS) takeover attempt is concerned…
… your guess is probably as good as mine in calling the shots in ...

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Analysis: Forward Air – the tortuous road to that ‘magical break-even point’

Alessandro Pasetti — Thu, 08 Aug 2024 11:55:09 +0000

Mergers and acquisitions can turn into a nightmare both when announced and when execution starts.
With Greeneville, Tennessee-based Forward Air (FWRD), we have obviously gone through the former stage (extensively covered by Premium).
As far as the latter aspect, however, is concerned, we are in the very early innings but yesterday’s post-US market disclosure of Q2 24 figures fully focused on any possible value-accretive hints stemming from this disastrous M&A story.
Notably, the ...

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DSV – near-$4bn Schenker boost update

Alessandro Pasetti — Fri, 19 Jul 2024 10:25:58 +0000

The M&A story of the week was out yesterday, 18 July, courtesy of Reuters:
“The field of bidders for German rail operator Deutsche Bahn’s logistics unit Schenker has narrowed to DSV and CVC after Saudi Arabia’s Bahri dropped out of the race, two people familiar with the sale told Reuters on Thursday.”
As a result, after Spike-y Monday 1 July we had our Spike-y Thursday this month, the upside limited to DSV ...

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Schenker race…Mærsk out – in the name of synergies, or the lack thereof

Alessandro Pasetti — Mon, 01 Jul 2024 12:05:54 +0000

If reports and rumours are to be trusted, by the end of this month (thank God), binding offers for Deutsche Bahn’s 3PL arm, DB Schenker (DBS), must be placed.
A lot of talk still surrounds the sale of the century in Germany, and most of it is just that – talk.
Yet, just as you might be growing impatient – surely true if you are one of those who reached out to ...

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